Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e52f595ea11abc2a7b3740ff106e8e3be18460d8d6ffe8be1e60b431b618ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 12c | 3,434$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.61 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…c8b7backed AVULUS | 68c | 3,189$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 1,617$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.45 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed VP.Prodigy | 2c | 1,602$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked VP.Prodigy | 21c | 1,582$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.24 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed AVULUS | 70c | 1,433$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed AVULUS | 77c | 1,301$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.16 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed VP.Prodigy | 27c | 899.98$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.99 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked AVULUS | 70c | 806.03$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.03 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed VP.Prodigy | 23c | 779.48$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed AVULUS | 73c | 577.6$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.99 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed VP.Prodigy | 36c | 539.61$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.71 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 515.45$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed AVULUS | 48c | 478.77$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…e74dbacked VP.Prodigy | 30c | 376.34$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked VP.Prodigy | 10c | 357.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed VP.Prodigy | 29c | 342.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 341.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…a5b6backed VP.Prodigy | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed AVULUS | 71c | 297.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 273.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked VP.Prodigy | 27c | 267.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed AVULUS | 70c | 250.37$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…4ec0backed VP.Prodigy | 5c | 246.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 235.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 220.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 207.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed VP.Prodigy | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed VP.Prodigy | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed VP.Prodigy | 6c | 192.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed VP.Prodigy | 10c | 192$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 175$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy | 41c | 173.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked VP.Prodigy | 42c | 170.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked VP.Prodigy | 59c | 170.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 153.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3796…006cbacked VP.Prodigy | 27c | 149.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 127.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 126.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed AVULUS | 76c | 113.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked VP.Prodigy | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 66c | 85.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed VP.Prodigy | 21c | 79.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…f7c2backed VP.Prodigy | 14c | 73.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed AVULUS | 56c | 56.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 55.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…cbc7backed AVULUS | 65c | 53.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked VP.Prodigy | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed AVULUS | 65c | 46.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked AVULUS | 56c | 44.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed AVULUS | 70c | 44.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed AVULUS | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 39.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…fd9dbacked VP.Prodigy | 53c | 30.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…a929backed AVULUS | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed AVULUS | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…3b29backed AVULUS | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed AVULUS | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed AVULUS | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked AVULUS | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed VP.Prodigy | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…34babacked AVULUS | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked AVULUS | 72c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked AVULUS | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.