Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf8fcd9aab385136e6c9ab4e338fa0978b184fe1a3c4e2c0132a0ac467338423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 33c | 1,501$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.52 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed AVULUS | 59c | 1,210$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.12 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VP.Prodigy | 3c | 964.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed AVULUS | 72c | 695.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed AVULUS | 67c | 571.61$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 516.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed AVULUS | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed VP.Prodigy | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 270$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 251.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked VP.Prodigy | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed AVULUS | 54c | 161.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked VP.Prodigy | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked AVULUS | 61c | 113.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…6d4bbacked VP.Prodigy | 42c | 105.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed AVULUS | 65c | 90.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AVULUS | 74c | 64.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…0044backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 49.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…4442backed VP.Prodigy | 34c | 48.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 42.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 61c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed AVULUS | 62c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…4e0cbacked AVULUS | 68c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed AVULUS | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 PlayoffsAVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.