AI · resolved market
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e55af44af370dbacc6237286966d8ef4bfbde8624543105db9571775ab73bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 22c | 943$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.97 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc20f…ab16backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 394.84$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.82 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 19c | 239.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.35 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 130.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 13c | 92.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by June 30?this page
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $39B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.