AI · resolved market
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296e3c6ff96130ab474164a7d0c1406dba6056e47a951162b8f6aba5966e4af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x936e…473fbacked Yes | 19c | 869.28$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 51cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 251$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 74c | 140.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 133.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…0488backed No | 72c | 131.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 106$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…1a6ebacked No | 75c | 100.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…5b7fbacked No | 76c | 96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 25c | 70.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 59.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?this page
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $39B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30?No won
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.