Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f38467e79479039a76669f40c9b492b970f73ab332ba1e7106facd5b703efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 7,067$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.2 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 5,789$4,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.58 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 56c | 2,689$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.63 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e3…fbb2backed Under | 56c | 1,756$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Over | 44c | 1,645$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 447.5$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.59 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 389.33$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 42c | 238.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 26c | 230$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 210.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 78c | 191.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Over | 44c | 106.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 52c | 102.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…9408backed Over | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 30c | 65.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 67c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x099b…428abacked Under | 55c | 45.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 77c | 35.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 39c | 28.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 79c | 26.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.