Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x716f7759f189926a037690bcd9e84cd003b779c66706262aebe0cdd7bd32c36d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 4,576$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.19 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 4,370$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.41 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 48c | 1,860$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.69 | 96 | 72.9%70 W · 26 L | +19.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 49c | 1,832$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.66 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 50c | 1,797$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.8 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,663$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.45 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 1,360$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.35 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 51c | 1,010$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.61 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +27.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 42c | 450$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 31c | 312.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.9 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 57c | 305.71$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 67c | 298.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 40c | 284.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 45c | 256$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 59c | 230.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 43c | 222.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Under | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 153.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 21c | 149.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 44c | 131.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 44c | 131.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 33c | 124.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 58c | 113.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 101.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 44c | 100.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 62c | 96.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 58c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…070fbacked Under | 53c | 84.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Over | 57c | 74.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 42c | 72.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…13febacked Under | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 57c | 64.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099b…428abacked Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…9133backed Under | 36c | 56.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Under | 58c | 50.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 58c | 48.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 44.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…8417backed Under | 52c | 38.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 36.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 65c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 49c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 42c | 30.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…de71backed Under | 42c | 29.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Over | 58c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 63c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.