NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f99c19436526f17afd4a689e332ef7c0e2d7f32310a841314199c50b90d43a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Canadiens, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Canadiens | 36c | 1,376$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.32 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Blues | 64c | 1,110$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blues | 64c | 754.05$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Canadiens | 36c | 501.11$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Canadiens | 35c | 357$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Canadiens | 36c | 281.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Canadiens | 17c | 247$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Canadiens | 34c | 245$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Blues | 64c | 235.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Blues | 64c | 221$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Blues | 66c | 217.72$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Blues | 70c | 180.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Canadiens | 29c | 157.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Blues | 65c | 121.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Canadiens | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Blues | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Canadiens | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Canadiens | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Canadiens | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blues | 63c | 67.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Canadiens | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Blues | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Canadiens | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Blues | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Blues | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Blues | 66c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blues | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. BluesBlues won
- Canadiens vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.