CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a018980d144a4822ea41eaa65391f90f468957282abfa176e2cf67ff4be0c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Just Players, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7437…e1e9backed Just Players | 28c | 1,406$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed OG | 62c | 989.51$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.85 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked OG | 64c | 794$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.79 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Just Players | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Just Players | 28c | 498.37$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…2f59backed Just Players | 44c | 480.52$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OG | 74c | 352.72$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked OG | 63c | 317.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed OG | 71c | 282.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Just Players | 26c | 266.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Just Players | 27c | 208.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 583 | 43.6%254 W · 329 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…5623backed Just Players | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked OG | 71c | 186.36$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked OG | 58c | 180.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c4…14c7backed Just Players | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Just Players | 33c | 140.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked OG | 68c | 119.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Just Players | 39c | 111.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed OG | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 328 | 44.8%147 W · 181 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Just Players | 11c | 95.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Just Players | 28c | 89.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Just Players | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked OG | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked OG | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed OG | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Just Players | 30c | 50.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked OG | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed OG | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 456 | 45.2%206 W · 250 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed OG | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed OG | 61c | 31.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked OG | 64c | 31.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…f362backed OG | 78c | 28.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8625…9a90backed OG | 52c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed OG | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 260 | 48.5%126 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9931…ea8cbacked OG | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed OG | 59c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 287 | 61.3%176 W · 111 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked OG | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed OG | 59c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed OG | 59c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed OG | 70c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OG - Map 1 WinnerOG won
- Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OG - Map 2 WinnerOG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.