South American Leagues · resolved market
Atlas FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a144c664085d35304395ec0c5e80df2a9a16075d8442f400f1182ac64b10dc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 5,174$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.38 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 61c | 3,255$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 57c | 1,500$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 49c | 594$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.53 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 55c | 499.52$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 51c | 357$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 35c | 316$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 65c | 189.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 124.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 41c | 107.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 104.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 12c | 100.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 14c | 87.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 45c | 83.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +121%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 66.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 42c | 59.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +78%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 44c | 38.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Under | 46c | 32.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 56c | 25.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 69c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlas FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5this page
- Atlas FC vs. Atlético San Luis: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlas FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlas FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlas FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.