Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a22182f4bcc01154df3bc75fd0ed09f691069f8fddf66f9b59c82ac51b32576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Bublik, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Bublik | 45c | 1,133$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Minaur | 55c | 1,043$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.51 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Bublik | 4c | 499.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minaur | 62c | 211.02$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Bublik | 47c | 127.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Bublik | 30c | 100.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bublik | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Minaur | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Bublik | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…739dbacked Bublik | 41c | 48.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minaur | 61c | 35.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Minaurthis page
- Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de MinaurMinaur won
- Bublik vs. Minaur: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Bublik vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)Minaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Bublik (+2.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.