CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a253e06953f340bc168e32c5302717ea695fcf2acc5bf17038eec9f88d5f20e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, Tricked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,228 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c5a…ff9fbacked HOTU | 72c | 19,985$14,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,598.44 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Tricked | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 307 | 26.4%81 W · 226 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Tricked | 28c | 3,143$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.04 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Tricked | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Tricked | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…a735backed Tricked | 31c | 650$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 244 | 29.5%72 W · 172 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5664backed Tricked | 28c | 565.61$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.75 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Tricked | 28c | 550$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Tricked | 28c | 432.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…f72bbacked Tricked | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 319 | 50.5%161 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed HOTU | 69c | 350$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Tricked | 28c | 259.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…2f1abacked Tricked | 9c | 226.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Tricked | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed Tricked | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Tricked | 23c | 172$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed HOTU | 70c | 166.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Tricked | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…bcf2backed Tricked | 30c | 108.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…a614backed Tricked | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 38%46 W · 75 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…0d42backed Tricked | 28c | 102.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Tricked | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Tricked | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Tricked | 21c | 61.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…0dbfbacked Tricked | 30c | 54.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…5a82backed HOTU | 76c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Tricked - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs Tricked (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.