Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Harvard Crimson (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a442c215c8e79cf8e5f7b2dfd81d2aacc7a7c126d36819728c59cd12579cd13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Quakersof Harvard Crimson, Penn Quakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,709 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penn Quakers | 48c | 2,555$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.59 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Harvard Crimson | 52c | 1,789$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.45 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Harvard Crimson | 54c | 589.83$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.51 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Penn Quakers | 28c | 506.11$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.74 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Harvard Crimson | 70c | 418.78$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.67 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Harvard Crimson | 52c | 381.64$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Penn Quakers | 52c | 243.25$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 231.55$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Penn Quakers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Harvard Crimson | 52c | 152.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Harvard Crimson | 59c | 129.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Harvard Crimson | 56c | 105.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 97.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Harvard Crimson | 54c | 96.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Harvard Crimson | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Harvard Crimson | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Penn Quakers | 49c | 84.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4729…8cfdbacked Penn Quakers | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Harvard Crimson | 32c | 73.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Harvard Crimson | 54c | 71.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked Harvard Crimson | 55c | 54.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Penn Quakers | 53c | 51.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Penn Quakers | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Harvard Crimson | 52c | 32.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Harvard Crimson | 43c | 23.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Harvard Crimson (-2.5)this page
- Penn Quakers vs. Harvard CrimsonPenn Quakers won
- Penn Quakers vs. Harvard Crimson: O/U 135.5Under won
- Penn Quakers vs. Harvard Crimson: O/U 136.5Under won
- Spread: Harvard Crimson (-3.5)Penn Quakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.