South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Santos FC win on 2026-01-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a638f638f37b1f2462974566afc55547ba86f498f4f20eb76a4c34857a4ad16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 3,597$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.29 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 2,272$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.6 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 35c | 1,784$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.51 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 1,250$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 962.57$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.2 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 60c | 926$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.4 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 42c | 794.43$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 51c | 737.59$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.83 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 66c | 735$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 37c | 555$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.89 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 63c | 441.51$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.36 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 401.95$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…a5fbbacked No | 62c | 399.19$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 393.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 26c | 354.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 62c | 271.09$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 38c | 263.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 37c | 225.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 177.53$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 78c | 177.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Yes | 35c | 163.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…b5a6backed No | 62c | 159.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 37c | 145.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 37c | 137.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Yes | 40c | 124.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed No | 60c | 113.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 17c | 102$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 40c | 98.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…19b1backed Yes | 41c | 97.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 61c | 89.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 62c | 76.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 39c | 71.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…0ca4backed Yes | 40c | 38.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…4386backed Yes | 37c | 38.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…871fbacked Yes | 38c | 37.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a9…4919backed Yes | 39c | 36.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…0d00backed Yes | 38c | 33.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…f431backed Yes | 39c | 32.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…c0f0backed Yes | 37c | 32.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5786…c49dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…ec3cbacked Yes | 39c | 29.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…8410backed No | 63c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff58…c3d4backed No | 63c | 21.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 61c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…60b1backed No | 63c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…d034backed No | 64c | 20.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfc…1869backed No | 63c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…8516backed No | 63c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…80f3backed No | 63c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826d…0673backed No | 63c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…a33cbacked No | 64c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…cf8bbacked No | 64c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030b…4035backed No | 63c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0a…0d4cbacked No | 64c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9257…ed5fbacked No | 64c | 16.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-01-28?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Santos FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-01-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.