South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-01-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5c90b2c8e8651950c37e210f5c8cb64a1178344cd9bc3f74d66d998d7e32e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Yes | 37c | 20,000$7,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,514.55 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 57c | 8,877$5,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,814.05 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 8,004$4,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,720.35 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 5,041$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 56c | 2,930$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.99 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 50c | 1,745$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 30c | 1,668$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.6 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 10c | 824.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 276.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 16c | 205.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 11c | 202.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 32c | 189$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 14c | 177.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.77 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed Yes | 75c | 161.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 20c | 149.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 34c | 146.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681c…5e31backed No | 72c | 136.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 28c | 112.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 57c | 106.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 34c | 98.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Yes | 23c | 78.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Yes | 54c | 53.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 30c | 50.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Yes | 38c | 36.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 45c | 35.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 76c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -16.3wins | -0.36per pick | 43cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 35c | 33.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-01-28?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Santos FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-01-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.