Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a745a5e2814b7cc59aa9c092a81f436fe211f89bb547327f7187924e436a782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 73c | 11,393$8,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,081.68 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 71c | 4,735$3,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.84 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 2,170$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.34 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 27c | 1,788$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.55 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 29c | 1,042$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.38 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 27c | 1,006$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.61 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 51c | 690.24$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.45 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 73c | 503.32$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 285.12$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 211.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 80c | 176.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 68c | 90.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Over | 37c | 89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 24c | 84.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 50c | 81.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 39c | 77.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…df0cbacked Over | 74c | 54.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…fceebacked Over | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…26afbacked Over | 72c | 38.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…7b86backed Over | 72c | 34.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 58c | 32.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 50c | 31.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Under | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Under | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 67c | 25.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.