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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes12c818.1$99 inWon+$719.072,23023.8%531 W · 1,699 L+89.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes11c421.67$46 inWon+$375.8210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No5c280.64$13 inLost-$13.21,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes7c275.4$19 inWon+$256.8654238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes21c222.34$47 inWon+$175.161,45827.8%406 W · 1,052 L+77.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes13c204.11$27 inWon+$17732846.6%153 W · 175 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes15c198.98$30 inWon+$169.321,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5703…ad74backed Yes12c183.99$23 inWon+$161.31825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b4…8706backed Yes9c159.47$15 inWon+$144.342722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa23b…b787backed Yes14c106$15 inWon+$91.1610648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c105$30 inLost-$29.751,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No28c105$30 inLost-$29.7513224.2%32 W · 100 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes22c100$22 inWon+$78.0930041%123 W · 177 L+26.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed Yes12c100$12 inWon+$887631.6%24 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes12c98.56$12 inWon+$86.253718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c86.27$30 inLost-$30.426,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No80c50$40 inLost-$4032382%265 W · 58 L+32.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes70c40$28 inWon+$12.141,10251.7%570 W · 532 L+74.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c40$32 inLost-$322,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No76c32$24 inLost-$24.325,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes49c30.79$15 inWon+$15.822,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes37c29.01$11 inWon+$18.152,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No54c25$14 inLost-$13.613852.2%72 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes75c24.45$18 inWon+$6.11,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes67c21.44$14 inWon+$7.112,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No80c20$16 inLost-$169273.9%68 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes72c18.21$13 inWon+$5.142,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf09f…1ca0backed No79c18$14 inLost-$14.224667.4%31 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No64c16.45$11 inLost-$10.5415246.1%70 W · 82 L-19.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.