Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f99d55783a971a0a8d009418b05d407cd1fb8fccfe49abff0924f72bdbc3eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 964.93$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.83 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…4bf0backed Yes | 29c | 678$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 633.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.43 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed Yes | 52c | 499.85$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 44c | 417.29$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.42 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 385.98$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 235$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 29c | 193.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 191.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 8c | 187.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 146.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 140.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 73c | 135$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 29c | 127$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 119.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 74c | 108.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 156 | 78.2%122 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 30c | 106$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 28c | 92.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 80.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 29c | 78.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 77.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 76.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 29c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 48c | 64.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 23c | 62.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 26c | 62.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b4…8706backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…42cabacked Yes | 29c | 59.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 56.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 74c | 49.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 26c | 40.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 39.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 37.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 35.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 54c | 34.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 74c | 34.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…57a4backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 29.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 49c | 28.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 44c | 26.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 62c | 26.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 20.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…b427backed No | 72c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.