Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8891843d09afa13ab5ca4f0f52c82faeca276d7d0a12b6933788eab74affd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1661…4b37backed Aurora | 50c | 2,172$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked ex-HEROIC | 49c | 816$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.84 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked ex-HEROIC | 51c | 676.3$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.91 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…4742backed Aurora | 47c | 648.3$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.6 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed ex-HEROIC | 53c | 550$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked ex-HEROIC | 51c | 392.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.23 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ex-HEROIC | 52c | 278.43$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Aurora | 46c | 218.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Aurora | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Aurora | 53c | 188.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ex-HEROIC | 47c | 183.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked ex-HEROIC | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked ex-HEROIC | 53c | 140.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Aurora | 48c | 104.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked ex-HEROIC | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Aurora | 45c | 88.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Aurora | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed ex-HEROIC | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked ex-HEROIC | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed ex-HEROIC | 55c | 54.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Aurora | 48c | 51.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed ex-HEROIC | 51c | 48.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Aurora | 49c | 47.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed ex-HEROIC | 65c | 45.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed Aurora | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked ex-HEROIC | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked ex-HEROIC | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed ex-HEROIC | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…e653backed Aurora | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed ex-HEROIC | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora | 56c | 23.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Aurora | 45c | 23.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Aurora | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.