Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2863d07c80d96be6c1cd3667d2f2f5cb3f49b788ae64f5dc1fee8860cd58caa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4574…273dbacked ex-HEROIC | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed ex-HEROIC | 25c | 2,895$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.8 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Aurora | 74c | 1,600$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.94 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 1,408$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.12 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed ex-HEROIC | 26c | 1,362$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.05 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed ex-HEROIC | 11c | 1,268$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora | 79c | 1,207$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.34 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked ex-HEROIC | 19c | 1,062$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ex-HEROIC | 20c | 1,002$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed ex-HEROIC | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC | 19c | 973.2$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 75c | 954.04$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.27 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 937$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.88 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -14.0wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Aurora | 76c | 850$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Aurora | 76c | 700$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Aurora | 75c | 664.66$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.16 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Aurora | 74c | 633$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 74c | 616.05$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.64 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 78c | 546.29$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…ec97backed Aurora | 73c | 546.19$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Aurora | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Aurora | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20f…ab16backed Aurora | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed ex-HEROIC | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-HEROIC | 21c | 470.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked ex-HEROIC | 17c | 427$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…59acbacked ex-HEROIC | 17c | 388$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…1a99backed Aurora | 74c | 337.42$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Aurora | 73c | 337$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora | 79c | 326.55$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora | 76c | 319.46$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Aurora | 76c | 306.52$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed ex-HEROIC | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…fa9fbacked ex-HEROIC | 25c | 299.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed ex-HEROIC | 15c | 291.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 76c | 280.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Aurora | 69c | 229.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Aurora | 76c | 223$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Aurora | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed ex-HEROIC | 22c | 182.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked ex-HEROIC | 16c | 169.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Aurora | 74c | 155.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 76c | 142.49$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Aurora | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed ex-HEROIC | 22c | 133.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52e5…60babacked Aurora | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Aurora | 80c | 112.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed ex-HEROIC | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked ex-HEROIC | 23c | 103.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…98c6backed Aurora | 71c | 100.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked ex-HEROIC | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed Aurora | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed ex-HEROIC | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x175f…dd2bbacked ex-HEROIC | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 85.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Aurora | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Aurora | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…5104backed Aurora | 72c | 73.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked ex-HEROIC | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed ex-HEROIC | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Aurora | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Aurora | 76c | 51.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed ex-HEROIC | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked ex-HEROIC | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked Aurora | 79c | 46.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 243 | 43.6%106 W · 137 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…a146backed Aurora | 72c | 45.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…599bbacked Aurora | 78c | 44.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 73cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bd…17eebacked Aurora | 78c | 44.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…561fbacked Aurora | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Aurora | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked Aurora | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…39cfbacked Aurora | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 177 | 63.8%113 W · 64 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…e5adbacked Aurora | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed Aurora | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…736bbacked Aurora | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Aurora | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd1…8b90backed Aurora | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…ee52backed Aurora | 70c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Aurora | 75c | 25.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Aurora | 75c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…dbd6backed Aurora | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 229 | 61.1%140 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…208bbacked Aurora | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Aurora | 75c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4802…c8e1backed Aurora | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…29b9backed Aurora | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.