TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, ex-HEROIC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4574…273dbacked ex-HEROIC24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72012630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed ex-HEROIC25c2,895$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.833746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked Aurora74c1,600$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.941764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed ex-HEROIC19c1,408$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1245750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed ex-HEROIC26c1,362$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.058137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed ex-HEROIC11c1,268$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora79c1,207$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.3453764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked ex-HEROIC19c1,062$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ex-HEROIC20c1,002$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.741,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Aurora73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27021264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed ex-HEROIC3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC19c973.2$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.937223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora75c954.04$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.271,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked ex-HEROIC22c937$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8810618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Aurora76c850$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2077060%42 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Aurora76c700$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1682352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Aurora75c664.66$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1622363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Aurora74c633$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.584358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora74c616.05$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.642,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Aurora78c546.29$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.661,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44e9…ec97backed Aurora73c546.19$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.471931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick56cpaid-52.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Aurora76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12010048%48 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Aurora75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12512854.7%70 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc20f…ab16backed Aurora76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12080544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed ex-HEROIC27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13522727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-HEROIC21c470.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3381029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked ex-HEROIC17c427$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9976…59acbacked ex-HEROIC17c388$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.882540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…1a99backed Aurora74c337.42$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.731163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Aurora73c337$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.181,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora79c326.55$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.861,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora76c319.46$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6717146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Aurora76c306.52$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3458746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed ex-HEROIC17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508918%16 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da2…fa9fbacked ex-HEROIC25c299.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed ex-HEROIC15c291.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.527424.3%18 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora76c280.04$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6396645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ee…878ebacked Aurora69c229.39$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.119552.6%50 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Aurora76c223$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8968345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked ex-HEROIC22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Aurora73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5420448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed ex-HEROIC22c182.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked ex-HEROIC16c169.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7524034.2%82 W · 158 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Aurora74c155.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4113148.1%63 W · 68 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora76c142.49$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Aurora73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9911753%62 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed ex-HEROIC22c133.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3750353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Aurora77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.878959.6%53 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Aurora80c112.11$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4289938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca78…b3a8backed ex-HEROIC24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked ex-HEROIC23c103.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5753139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0f7…98c6backed Aurora71c100.9$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2426846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked ex-HEROIC24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2422538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed Aurora72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed ex-HEROIC11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118432.1%27 W · 57 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x175f…dd2bbacked ex-HEROIC24c96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.044254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked ex-HEROIC22c85.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.791872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Aurora73c82.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1935461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Aurora74c74.32$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3251550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7044…5104backed Aurora72c73.57$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38bb…2fcfbacked ex-HEROIC28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c9e…8e90backed ex-HEROIC27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Aurora75c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.216550.3%83 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Aurora76c51.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.473964.1%25 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed ex-HEROIC19c51.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030834.1%105 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed ex-HEROIC24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1111037.3%41 W · 69 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked ex-HEROIC27c48.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked Aurora79c46.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7124343.6%106 W · 137 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f7…a146backed Aurora72c45.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.715947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b8…599bbacked Aurora78c44.92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.92887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick73cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0bd…17eebacked Aurora78c44.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd04…561fbacked Aurora73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.16163.9%39 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Aurora73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.814953.7%80 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997b…641bbacked Aurora74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.49853.1%52 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2628…39cfbacked Aurora77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9617763.8%113 W · 64 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94c1…e5adbacked Aurora78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceea…ec81backed Aurora74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7812073.3%88 W · 32 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a91…736bbacked Aurora74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.787375.3%55 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed Aurora77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.476165.6%40 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bd1…8b90backed Aurora72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c6…ee52backed Aurora70c25.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c27…21a9backed Aurora75c25.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.365470.4%38 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Aurora75c25.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.233445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Aurora80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd993…208bbacked Aurora73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.55366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Aurora75c20.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.083271.9%23 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4802…c8e1backed Aurora75c20.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0718063.9%115 W · 65 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora73c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9339351.1%201 W · 192 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f1…29b9backed Aurora70c17.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.