Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb3826760ba056e7ed66bc155c36917ad967895b00f70f5bb0d6b2b871c6d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $692,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $958,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $692,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora | 60c | 239,979$144,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,019.1 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked ex-HEROIC | 40c | 226,327$89,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,896.57 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 65c | 22,967$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,966.63 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 60c | 20,000$12,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,995.91 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked ex-HEROIC | 40c | 10,229$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,086.83 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Aurora | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…40dfbacked ex-HEROIC | 45c | 10,000$4,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,475.69 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked ex-HEROIC | 39c | 9,954$3,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked ex-HEROIC | 48c | 8,693$4,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,152 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed ex-HEROIC | 37c | 8,660$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.86 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked ex-HEROIC | 37c | 7,727$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.38 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 7,000$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 60c | 6,293$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.85 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 5,003$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.15 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Aurora | 60c | 4,277$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.5 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 4,004$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.75 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked ex-HEROIC | 34c | 3,750$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.01 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 64c | 3,300$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…b814backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 241 | 53.1%128 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 40c | 2,936$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.58 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed Aurora | 62c | 2,900$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked ex-HEROIC | 64c | 2,832$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.8 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked ex-HEROIC | 39c | 2,806$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.9 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Aurora | 63c | 2,528$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.68 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.99 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora | 64c | 2,331$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.29 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 2,125$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed ex-HEROIC | 38c | 2,000$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.57 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 1,962$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.79 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora | 66c | 1,950$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.5 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ex-HEROIC | 25c | 1,927$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.62 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Aurora | 55c | 1,814$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.32 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 51c | 1,769$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Aurora | 66c | 1,660$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.89 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Aurora | 61c | 1,589$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.79 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Aurora | 36c | 1,538$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.03 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 1,513$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.04 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Aurora | 42c | 1,427$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.41 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked ex-HEROIC | 43c | 1,425$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.03 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,382$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.5 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora | 27c | 1,314$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.52 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked ex-HEROIC | 78c | 1,281$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.9 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14c…23a1backed ex-HEROIC | 38c | 1,232$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.16 | 351 | 51.3%180 W · 171 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d3…cdacbacked Aurora | 62c | 1,190$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.05 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Aurora | 60c | 1,182$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.36 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked ex-HEROIC | 37c | 1,079$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.49 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora | 64c | 1,051$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.27 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked ex-HEROIC | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 62c | 907.87$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.47 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 57c | 863.3$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.36 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed ex-HEROIC | 34c | 824.62$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.84 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 56c | 803.52$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.04 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 21c | 796.31$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.54 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora | 66c | 783.59$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.14 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Aurora | 43c | 749.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.99 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 66c | 734.35$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.8 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed ex-HEROIC | 30c | 720$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed ex-HEROIC | 2c | 712.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed ex-HEROIC | 34c | 671$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed ex-HEROIC | 41c | 657.14$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…7f5bbacked Aurora | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…cc95backed Aurora | 24c | 600$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked ex-HEROIC | 52c | 600$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 583.47$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.04 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 574.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 74c | 559.38$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Aurora | 63c | 543.33$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.47 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ex-HEROIC | 46c | 538.07$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.48 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked ex-HEROIC | 40c | 533.49$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 395 | 50.1%198 W · 197 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 61c | 500.58$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.97 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Aurora | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed ex-HEROIC | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c1dabacked ex-HEROIC | 38c | 499.43$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora | 60c | 499.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked ex-HEROIC | 31c | 497.87$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…6091backed Aurora | 21c | 469.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.8 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…1b2ebacked Aurora | 78c | 463.99$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Aurora | 62c | 462.9$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.9 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked ex-HEROIC | 45c | 461.23$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed ex-HEROIC | 44c | 444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed ex-HEROIC | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed ex-HEROIC | 41c | 424.71$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ex-HEROIC | 30c | 411.2$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora | 63c | 397.73$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…f025backed Aurora | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Aurora | 71c | 349.78$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked ex-HEROIC | 76c | 349$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5789…6407backed ex-HEROIC | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…91babacked Aurora | 60c | 306.26$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…0257backed ex-HEROIC | 13c | 304.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b79…a5a8backed Aurora | 46c | 299.82$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.82 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…b3c1backed Aurora | 65c | 298.12$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Aurora | 29c | 278.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.8 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 59c | 260.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…89f5backed Aurora | 52c | 259.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.77 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed ex-HEROIC | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Aurora | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked Aurora | 22c | 250$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.