Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a5c0c83a292d3c67284223e9a3f141c2138b88323002f6d58303f22e90aca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 68c | 38,095$26,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,095.03 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 10,369$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171.85 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 10,140$3,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,631 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…40dfbacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 10,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Aurora | 64c | 7,500$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked ex-HEROIC | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed ex-HEROIC | 16c | 4,814$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.23 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 4,608$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.5 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked ex-HEROIC | 31c | 3,957$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.59 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked ex-HEROIC | 37c | 3,250$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.74 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 3,000$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.08 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ex-HEROIC | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed ex-HEROIC | 28c | 2,996$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.04 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora | 61c | 2,935$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.5 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked ex-HEROIC | 27c | 2,269$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.05 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Aurora | 65c | 1,750$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.5 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed ex-HEROIC | 26c | 1,721$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.1 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,662$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.95 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 72c | 1,538$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.82 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed ex-HEROIC | 35c | 1,500$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.96 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed ex-HEROIC | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked ex-HEROIC | 30c | 1,378$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.48 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Aurora | 65c | 1,207$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.49 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Aurora | 73c | 1,200$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.38 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked ex-HEROIC | 30c | 1,179$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora | 64c | 1,139$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.04 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ex-HEROIC | 2c | 1,133$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 1,100$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.99 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 74c | 973.39$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.71 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora | 64c | 965.99$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.76 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 75c | 946.7$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.75 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 914.08$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.08 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14c…23a1backed Aurora | 64c | 854$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.44 | 351 | 51.3%180 W · 171 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed ex-HEROIC | 22c | 789$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora | 75c | 750$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed ex-HEROIC | 6c | 749.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed Aurora | 64c | 718.75$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.75 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Aurora | 73c | 684.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.7 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 72c | 653.56$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.25 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Aurora | 65c | 535.23$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 395 | 50.1%198 W · 197 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 529.18$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…cc95backed ex-HEROIC | 28c | 500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.95 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 499.97$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c1dabacked ex-HEROIC | 21c | 471.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed Aurora | 65c | 438.6$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.51 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 72c | 426.15$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 66c | 395$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 378.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Aurora | 72c | 346.18$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 76c | 322.92$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 74c | 305$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Aurora | 65c | 301.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC | 30c | 279$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Aurora | 64c | 237$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked Aurora | 74c | 228$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 193 | 52.3%101 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked ex-HEROIC | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed ex-HEROIC | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Aurora | 65c | 186.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 182.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Aurora | 71c | 170.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Aurora | 71c | 170.37$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 141.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed ex-HEROIC | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked ex-HEROIC | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked ex-HEROIC | 28c | 101.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked ex-HEROIC | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Aurora | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked ex-HEROIC | 28c | 92.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed ex-HEROIC | 35c | 86.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…fbfabacked ex-HEROIC | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 302 | 55.3%167 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…6354backed Aurora | 72c | 77.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed ex-HEROIC | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed ex-HEROIC | 30c | 61.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed ex-HEROIC | 37c | 61.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Aurora | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…8b81backed ex-HEROIC | 27c | 50.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed ex-HEROIC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Aurora | 69c | 49.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed ex-HEROIC | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 35.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Aurora | 65c | 29.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Aurora | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…868bbacked Aurora | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 313 | 57.2%179 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Aurora | 64c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.