UFC · resolved market
Teague vs. Douglas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aa0a298f924d68fd8529629004c5c0b6b4b61ef8ac38cedeb93e5ec428e5500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Douglasof Teague, Douglas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Teague | 0c | 10,837$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Teague | 18c | 2,208$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ab…112abacked Teague | 21c | 659.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Douglas | 78c | 382.91$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Douglas | 79c | 249.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…5c56backed Douglas | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Teague | 18c | 155.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Teague | 18c | 147.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Teague | 24c | 84.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Teague | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Teague vs. Douglasthis page
- Blair vs. SanchesSanches won
- Dyer vs. ForoForo won
- Franco vs. VidalVidal won
- Guarascio vs. AsplundAsplund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.