UFC · resolved market
Guarascio vs. Asplund
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858fa7a1755f23fd2ace584b742891236dc483985a502020d87c92ce023c0bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Asplundof Guarascio, Asplund
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Guarascio | 58c | 1,863$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.66 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Guarascio | 60c | 1,661$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.15 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked Asplund | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Asplund | 40c | 1,135$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Guarascio | 59c | 622.33$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.27 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Asplund | 40c | 461.37$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Asplund | 41c | 257.57$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Asplund | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Asplund | 41c | 220$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Asplund | 42c | 155$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Asplund | 41c | 127.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Asplund | 42c | 123$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Guarascio | 58c | 120.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Guarascio | 60c | 107.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…c9f4backed Guarascio | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Asplund | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Guarascio | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Asplund | 42c | 87.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Guarascio | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Asplund | 42c | 57.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Guarascio | 64c | 51.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…a309backed Guarascio | 62c | 48.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Asplund | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Asplund | 40c | 42.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Asplund | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Asplund | 42c | 28.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…a5fabacked Guarascio | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Guarascio vs. Asplundthis page
- Blair vs. SanchesSanches won
- Dyer vs. ForoForo won
- Franco vs. VidalVidal won
- Teague vs. DouglasDouglas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.