UFC · resolved market
Dyer vs. Foro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x674bb3e3a5672dc1ad6f1cdddb5bdfb6f00eaa8e49149981a89839ea29134a90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Foroof Dyer, Foro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Foro | 38c | 1,403$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.57 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Dyer | 63c | 1,160$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.28 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Foro | 38c | 860.13$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…23d9backed Dyer | 65c | 766.5$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Foro | 40c | 747.62$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.57 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Dyer | 68c | 700$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Foro | 35c | 398.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.34 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Foro | 74c | 359.96$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Foro | 36c | 299.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Foro | 38c | 224.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Foro | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Dyer | 64c | 184.14$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Dyer | 64c | 161.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Dyer | 61c | 161.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Dyer | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Dyer | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Foro | 38c | 75.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Dyer | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Dyer | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Foro | 44c | 43.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…c0d3backed Dyer | 57c | 28.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Dyer | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4555…5263backed Foro | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dyer vs. Forothis page
- Blair vs. SanchesSanches won
- Franco vs. VidalVidal won
- Guarascio vs. AsplundAsplund won
- Teague vs. DouglasDouglas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.