Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac951cef2feabc4b1d86d82bb2f40ccd8dcef00fe2bb66014f326f3b7caea78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 522.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 73c | 501.83$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.54 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 16c | 328.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 17c | 326.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 23c | 231.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 35c | 217.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 59c | 168.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 57c | 168.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 22c | 116.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 32c | 115.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 65c | 99.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 17c | 95.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 12c | 86.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 61c | 86.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 23c | 85.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 25c | 76.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 69.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 40c | 60.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 53.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…c241backed Yes | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 77c | 46.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 70c | 42.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed No | 52c | 41.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 77c | 28.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 47c | 22.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 56c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 80c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…18fcbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed Yes | 74c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.