Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad4d84a00087e4c8b07d0530fa8caadd25a055a8f5c11f042c39b26e4f06694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 75c | 3,159$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.69 | 132 | 70.5%93 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 53c | 3,070$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.85 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 40c | 2,960$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.98 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 59c | 2,249$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.83 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 32c | 2,165$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.21 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 23c | 707$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.39 | 1,041 | 48%500 W · 541 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 501.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.05 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 57c | 483.54$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.14 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 59c | 482.81$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 75c | 316$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.81 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed No | 80c | 312.61$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +13.7wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 20c | 246.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.25 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 23c | 195.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 62c | 75.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…d891backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +264.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 22c | 46.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 42c | 37.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…ab0dbacked Yes | 29c | 37.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed No | 80c | 31.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 69cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…f821backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Thun win on 2026-08-27?No won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.