Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Thun win on 2026-08-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x710882ff8c505b079b784d8a876be380710ebfbb6b9599c64e91d65022b3a8c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 44c | 6,000$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,359.98 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -14.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 55c | 3,407$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.87 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 67c | 2,096$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.46 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 66c | 2,090$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.24 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 35c | 1,439$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.84 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 38c | 1,016$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.97 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 26c | 850$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.15 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 823.86$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.36 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 24c | 604.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 37c | 561.5$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 34c | 512$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 58c | 431.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 113 | 68.1%77 W · 36 L | +15.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 63c | 412$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.44 | 1,199 | 47.5%569 W · 630 L | -5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 48c | 395.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.65 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 66c | 361.33$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 632 | 49.1%310 W · 322 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 27c | 349.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 19c | 324.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 62c | 320.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 28c | 317.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 303 | 45.2%137 W · 166 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 62c | 310$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Yes | 35c | 242.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 33c | 235.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 1,103 | 45.3%500 W · 603 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 67c | 235.51$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…8beabacked Yes | 35c | 205.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 42c | 186.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 42c | 142.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Yes | 40c | 125.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 38c | 121.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 39c | 112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 341 | 42.8%146 W · 195 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 63c | 99.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 763 | 56.1%428 W · 335 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 61c | 99.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 27c | 86.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 37c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed No | 66c | 69.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Yes | 33c | 69.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 65c | 66.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 27c | 56.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 28c | 56.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed No | 62c | 53.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 67c | 46.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 143 | 58%83 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 44c | 44.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Yes | 59c | 35.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 37c | 32.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked No | 42c | 30.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed No | 62c | 23.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 56c | 23.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 147 | 49%72 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 63c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 388 | 55.4%215 W · 173 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 59c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 137 | 67.2%92 W · 45 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 408 | 44.4%181 W · 227 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed No | 73c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 45 | 91.1%41 W · 4 L | +11.4wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Thun win on 2026-08-27?this page
- Will FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?Yes won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.