Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3adcbf5ec767d8dfcd69622cb6c604fd35d070c3e14a5c3df2b193e3dd12de8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…e517backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 500.84$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 74c | 229.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 137.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 36c | 119.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 35c | 106.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 33c | 87.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 77.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 67.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 64.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 62.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 34c | 51.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 30c | 50.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 31c | 49.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 45.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 41.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 41.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 35.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…1b2fbacked Yes | 38c | 35.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 28.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 72c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 26.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 24.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…aa2fbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 71c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 73c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.