Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ab784f729a19a40a2137022a405c3f487f72b1593250b4e86895db2e2ca628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 48c | 663.61$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.88 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 302.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 272.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 69c | 221.27$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 30c | 213.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 57c | 191.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 53c | 179.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 165.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 66c | 162.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…3d94backed Yes | 76c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 41c | 132$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 42c | 93.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 73c | 77.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 46c | 71.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 61.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 59.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 41c | 58.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 51c | 58.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 56c | 52.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…ef91backed Yes | 71c | 51.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 44c | 50.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 42c | 47.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 53c | 43.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 59c | 43.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 63c | 43.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 77c | 43.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 57c | 42.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 48c | 41.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 42c | 40.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 65c | 36.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 31c | 34.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 34.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 59c | 34.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 42c | 32.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 49c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed Yes | 77c | 30.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 57c | 28.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 42c | 27.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…aa2fbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 41c | 26.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.