South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3af25bd01f80260027376ee1dab4e2c59ca5c76be79c075010b75b72c20d58bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 14c | 1,392$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.57 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 76c | 798.09$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.29 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 599.22$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.22 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 481.16$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 40c | 205$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 44c | 167.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 62c | 162.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Over | 42c | 139.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 27c | 109.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…3a24backed Over | 42c | 95.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 72.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 70c | 60.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.