South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62fdebad163f4bfda003abeace8a2f41f1fdca85be50e96ba9244f37e9aa5abc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 1,203$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.55 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 946.4$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.38 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 70c | 679.11$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.47 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 32c | 517.5$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 80c | 473.36$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 70c | 412.75$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 47c | 404.44$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 39c | 341.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 318.66$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 59c | 285$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.79 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 69c | 261.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 238.01$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 57c | 212.57$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 181.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Over | 66c | 173.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 170.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 39c | 125$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 117.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 45c | 111.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 71c | 98.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 58c | 85.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 50c | 58.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…7f3dbacked Over | 61c | 49.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…deefbacked Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 50c | 39.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 64c | 38.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 54c | 35.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 62c | 29.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…568abacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Over | 67c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Over | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…1932backed Over | 74c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.