Mls · resolved market
MLS: Will LAFC beat San Diego FC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afbbb6936049e14863663211d57dfe986aaa20549acba54722ddc6752746d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 55c | 3,974$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 44c | 2,926$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.89 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 48c | 1,038$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.07 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yes | 47c | 963.05$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 51c | 820$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.41 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…1cadbacked Yes | 77c | 724.05$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 53c | 643$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.38 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yes | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 45c | 416$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 50c | 399.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Yes | 21c | 332$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…1050backed No | 63c | 286.13$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 44c | 226.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 181$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 56c | 138.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 45c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed No | 45c | 78.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed Yes | 56c | 51.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 54c | 43.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 53c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS: Will LAFC beat San Diego FC?this page
- MLS: Will LAFC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?No won
- MLS: Will San Diego FC beat LAFC?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.