Tennis · resolved market
Vancouver: Hayu Kinoshita vs Kyoka Okamura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2f430ff0d299f1b735455cf2ea8bc138175bc0400b9b6ee867aeb1024c8e99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hayu Kinoshitaof Hayu Kinoshita, Kyoka Okamura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Hayu Kinoshita | 77c | 6,902$5,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.03 | 941 | 40.6%382 W · 559 L | -31.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kyoka Okamura | 17c | 3,009$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.27 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Kyoka Okamura | 31c | 2,903$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.93 | 1,512 | 24.1%364 W · 1,148 L | -41.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kyoka Okamura | 9c | 2,058$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.1 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Kyoka Okamura | 11c | 1,020$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Kyoka Okamura | 35c | 862.59$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.91 | 380 | 38.2%145 W · 235 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…6e6fbacked Kyoka Okamura | 20c | 328.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Kyoka Okamura | 22c | 240.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Kyoka Okamura | 22c | 231.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…d9d4backed Kyoka Okamura | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 20.8%52 W · 198 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hayu Kinoshita | 70c | 139.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Kyoka Okamura | 35c | 114.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Kyoka Okamura | 18c | 101.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Kyoka Okamura | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 954 | 45.5%434 W · 520 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 65c | 94.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…be1cbacked Kyoka Okamura | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 49cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 80c | 62.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 235 | 81.7%192 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 80cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Hayu Kinoshita | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Kyoka Okamura | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 40.9%70 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Kyoka Okamura | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 36.7%79 W · 136 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Hayu Kinoshita | 64c | 53.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Hayu Kinoshita | 65c | 46.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Kyoka Okamura | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kyoka Okamura | 33c | 44.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…3408backed Hayu Kinoshita | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Hayu Kinoshita | 64c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Hayu Kinoshita | 64c | 29.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,022 | 57.8%591 W · 431 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…b79fbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 98 | 67.3%66 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.