NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4fd310a25aafcd341ea144f6855851e8c0e0583fad1820b9a515ed43986459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,280$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.16 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 3,976$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.61 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 49c | 2,558$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.7 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 47c | 2,388$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.2 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 49c | 1,773$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.54 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,212$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,040$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.72 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 406.14$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.07 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 50c | 404$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Under | 48c | 384.46$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 12c | 378.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 52c | 210.42$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 13c | 198$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…6fc8backed Under | 52c | 174.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 13c | 162.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 48c | 153$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 54c | 118.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 114.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Under | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…80adbacked Over | 54c | 100.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 47c | 87.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 52c | 66.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 52c | 45.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 52c | 38.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 37.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 51c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 52c | 25.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 58c | 20.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SharksSharks won
- Canadiens vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.