NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa34ceded3815c22c47576d45fbe5380eac83dc6cc1a7dde4534ceb954d87c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Canadiens, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sharks | 66c | 1,888$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.87 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Canadiens | 34c | 1,819$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.45 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Canadiens | 41c | 936.89$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.56 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Sharks | 59c | 912.02$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.03 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…126ebacked Canadiens | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Sharks | 65c | 582.65$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.93 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 35c | 521.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.2 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sharks | 66c | 511.31$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Canadiens | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Sharks | 67c | 325.99$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sharks | 64c | 231.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Canadiens | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Sharks | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Canadiens | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Sharks | 70c | 171.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Sharks | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Canadiens | 35c | 126$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Sharks | 66c | 125.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sharks | 67c | 119.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sharks | 70c | 109.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Sharks | 69c | 102.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Canadiens | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Canadiens | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Canadiens | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Canadiens | 31c | 98.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Sharks | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Canadiens | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Sharks | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Sharks | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…ddd0backed Canadiens | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Canadiens | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Sharks | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…37d5backed Canadiens | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Canadiens | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Canadiens | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Sharks | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sharks | 70c | 30.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sharks | 66c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sharks | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Sharks | 68c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Sharks | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. SharksSharks won
- Canadiens vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.