Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BAIYAWAK vs Carstensz (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b645a7341c25e7111e55ac9b17b0d689588b1e4a863226478fd6d30296b2cac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof BAIYAWAK, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9024…a444backed BAIYAWAK | 2c | 5,341$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed BAIYAWAK | 48c | 3,949$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.87 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked BAIYAWAK | 51c | 1,374$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.84 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Carstensz | 53c | 937.99$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.45 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Carstensz | 47c | 798$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.94 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Carstensz | 63c | 735$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.19 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Carstensz | 49c | 710.72$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.61 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked BAIYAWAK | 61c | 704$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.68 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Carstensz | 52c | 677.66$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.28 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked BAIYAWAK | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked BAIYAWAK | 73c | 510.38$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.28 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Carstensz | 26c | 415.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.38 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Carstensz | 66c | 378.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked BAIYAWAK | 31c | 357$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Carstensz | 61c | 313.78$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked BAIYAWAK | 17c | 292.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…b3f4backed BAIYAWAK | 58c | 281.59$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194c…d3fdbacked BAIYAWAK | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Carstensz | 29c | 229.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.66 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked BAIYAWAK | 39c | 219$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Carstensz | 32c | 217.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed BAIYAWAK | 7c | 193.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…7181backed Carstensz | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 26cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Carstensz | 56c | 184.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked BAIYAWAK | 6c | 177.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 56 | 1.8%1 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed BAIYAWAK | 15c | 171.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Carstensz | 28c | 170.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed Carstensz | 60c | 169.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked BAIYAWAK | 59c | 166.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed BAIYAWAK | 26c | 138.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Carstensz | 57c | 133.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked BAIYAWAK | 26c | 131.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xb644…af07backed BAIYAWAK | 25c | 120.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed BAIYAWAK | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked BAIYAWAK | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…acc9backed Carstensz | 50c | 97.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…3f30backed BAIYAWAK | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…d949backed BAIYAWAK | 73c | 68.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Carstensz | 18c | 58.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Carstensz | 21c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed BAIYAWAK | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked BAIYAWAK | 77c | 49.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed BAIYAWAK | 71c | 36.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…f3f0backed Carstensz | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked BAIYAWAK | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…d209backed BAIYAWAK | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…41f2backed Carstensz | 78c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BAIYAWAK | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed BAIYAWAK | 71c | 15.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BAIYAWAK vs Carstensz (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: BAIYAWAK vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerBAIYAWAK won
- Dota 2: BAIYAWAK vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.