Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b855cbad5c068dc78293033d6d17d86349590f7b9ecae4c2ea25b4a71a88e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x704f…9eb2backed No | 53c | 688$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c45…8d65backed Yes | 47c | 688$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…4144backed Yes | 41c | 591.96$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked No | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 245$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…c9d7backed Yes | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 63c | 112$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…32dfbacked No | 61c | 110.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 63.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed No | 64c | 53.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 32c | 47.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…b298backed Yes | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 53c | 30.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…7ce7backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 41c | 28.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 22.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.