Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaffd983be529505d16e55f17008f2167305fac487fb648711d5ec8c502c8164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc6…fe0abacked Yes | 50c | 1,404$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ee…f581backed No | 50c | 1,404$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83d…5080backed No | 50c | 858$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…54ccbacked Yes | 50c | 858$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…8598backed Yes | 50c | 852.2$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…90aabacked No | 50c | 852.2$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…48adbacked Yes | 50c | 842$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…f636backed No | 50c | 842$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…24cabacked Yes | 50c | 824$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ee…4660backed No | 50c | 824$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…ee70backed Yes | 50c | 774$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…e663backed No | 50c | 774$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577b…3dd3backed Yes | 51c | 770$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c6…3162backed No | 49c | 770$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…7509backed No | 50c | 761$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…c148backed Yes | 50c | 761$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…1b8fbacked Yes | 49c | 744$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa3…fdedbacked Yes | 50c | 742$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…bc6bbacked No | 50c | 742$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb72…115bbacked No | 50c | 735$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…4144backed Yes | 43c | 728.04$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…f1cfbacked Yes | 50c | 722$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…2eb5backed No | 50c | 722$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…d9d3backed No | 50c | 714$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…e2d5backed Yes | 50c | 714$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…21b1backed Yes | 50c | 682$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…33babacked No | 50c | 682$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked No | 71c | 421.72$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 412.7$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed No | 51c | 351$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 29c | 205$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…1ce5backed No | 50c | 204$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 130.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 40.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed Yes | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked No | 34c | 33.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +683%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 32.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…b298backed Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…9262backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…54e7backed Yes | 70c | 24.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…1d6fbacked Yes | 62c | 24.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.