Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bac05a44c98662f6566c577e0fcea847079b9b837b1ebada74889eb7ae95514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd36b…5942backed No | 5c | 292.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 238.04$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 227.93$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 73c | 204.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 11c | 187.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 166.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 64c | 156.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 31c | 131.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 43c | 117.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 58c | 102.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 81.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 77.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 74.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed Yes | 59c | 63.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 40c | 63.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 60c | 61.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 59.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed No | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 49.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 59c | 46.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 30c | 42.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 36c | 38.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 53c | 37.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 39c | 37.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 55c | 34.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 30c | 33.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed No | 47c | 33.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 32.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked Yes | 42c | 30.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…ba7ebacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 26.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked No | 48c | 24.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 75c | 24.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea2…d75bbacked Yes | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 70c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.