Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bd2bd28302235f67600981a9ecb4c98fd3ca6e8aa1e56cc0820b7259f6da2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bublik | 20c | 2,470$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.15 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Alcaraz | 75c | 1,998$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.46 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…c764backed Bublik | 30c | 399.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…0a8bbacked Bublik | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 130 | 16.9%22 W · 108 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…fc9bbacked Bublik | 29c | 247.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 223 | 52%116 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Bublik | 18c | 238.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bublik | 12c | 198.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Alcaraz | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 226 | 46%104 W · 122 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Alcaraz | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Bublik | 25c | 123.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 405 | 48.1%195 W · 210 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Bublik | 17c | 64.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…b4d4backed Bublik | 37c | 52.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bublik | 26c | 43.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alcaraz | 64c | 37.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Alcaraz | 70c | 33.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alcaraz | 69c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…32a7backed Alcaraz | 69c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 163 | 72.4%118 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…7211backed Alcaraz | 77c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Bublikthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander BublikCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.