Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x713180ca1ff0cd12989a5d7741d07978d092c92d4918996f3a8a36fc04fc8d99

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Alcarazof Alcaraz, Bublik
Resolved: Apr 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,963 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Bublik	30c	44,335$13,185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,185.41	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Alcaraz	70c	13,892$9,663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,228.66	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alcaraz	71c	8,918$6,309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,609.57	2,523	39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L	-3.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Alcaraz	69c	8,489$5,857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,631.62	265	45.3%120 W · 145 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Alcaraz	71c	7,639$5,391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,248.81	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Alcaraz	67c	3,824$2,578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,245.69	187	56.1%105 W · 82 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Bublik	32c	3,543$1,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,133.9	182	37.9%69 W · 113 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Alcaraz	74c	2,000$1,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.99	118	52.5%62 W · 56 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Bublik	26c	1,989$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.89	80	60%48 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Alcaraz	71c	1,886$1,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.82	1,678	50.8%852 W · 826 L	+30.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Bublik	30c	1,459$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.42	309	48.9%151 W · 158 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Alcaraz	70c	1,420$994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.21	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bublik	24c	1,081$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.74	4,076	39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L	+93.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Alcaraz	70c	1,005$704 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.62	526	61.2%322 W · 204 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Alcaraz	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	158	60.8%96 W · 62 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd8c…f75abacked Alcaraz	70c	702.26$491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.29	327	63.9%209 W · 118 L	+15.6wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a7a…7f10backed Bublik	32c	614.49$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.64	101	47.5%48 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Bublik	27c	443.65$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.7	1,504	35.1%528 W · 976 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Alcaraz	71c	415.04$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.36	316	56.3%178 W · 138 L	+19.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Alcaraz	75c	288.34$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.76	299	47.5%142 W · 157 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Alcaraz	70c	287.59$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.28	847	36%305 W · 542 L	-35.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Alcaraz	70c	280.57$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.17	138	52.2%72 W · 66 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Alcaraz	70c	280.57$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.17	188	68.6%129 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Bublik	21c	277.05$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.14	1,566	40%627 W · 939 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Alcaraz	71c	266.94$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.41	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b33…044ebacked Bublik	32c	242.74$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.72	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3d…7a79backed Alcaraz	76c	220.43$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.91	67	62.7%42 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Bublik	48c	205.88$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.67	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Alcaraz	70c	203.41$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.02	583	59.2%345 W · 238 L	-8.3wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Alcaraz	71c	200.69$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.32	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5462…fe43backed Alcaraz	70c	198.41$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.52	73	60.3%44 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Bublik	49c	197.84$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.94	325	54.2%176 W · 149 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Bublik	31c	185.54$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.52	672	39.1%263 W · 409 L	-29.5wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0185…3735backed Bublik	13c	153.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-3.2wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Bublik	34c	152.5$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.39	9,286	44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L	-245.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbc…3d8abacked Bublik	32c	134.71$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed Alcaraz	74c	132$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.32	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Bublik	30c	128.03$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	625	34.4%215 W · 410 L	-20.1wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Alcaraz	50c	103.05$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	174	62.6%109 W · 65 L	+34.2wins	+0.20per pick	43cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed Bublik	49c	100.36$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.45	323	33.4%108 W · 215 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fe…ad2dbacked Alcaraz	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f0…2923backed Alcaraz	58c	99.77$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.27	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Bublik	33c	99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	4,765	47%2,238 W · 2,527 L	-82.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed Bublik	50c	97.94$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.49	373	51.2%191 W · 182 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Bublik	42c	96.52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.54	354	39.8%141 W · 213 L	-15.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Bublik	26c	88.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.93	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Alcaraz	61c	80.09$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.89	296	61.5%182 W · 114 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10f9…5a03backed Bublik	38c	76.78$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510e…b8e0backed Alcaraz	73c	75.33$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bublik	31c	73.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x088a…9ee7backed Bublik	30c	64.18$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Alcaraz	78c	63.62$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.29	593	66.8%396 W · 197 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab0f…9900backed Alcaraz	56c	60.85$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.77	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d84…a7bdbacked Alcaraz	71c	60.63$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.58	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Bublik	30c	60.48$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	308	60.1%185 W · 123 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Bublik	29c	55.53$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Bublik	29c	50.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	450	51.8%233 W · 217 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fd…78b2backed Alcaraz	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a5…80d4backed Bublik	30c	47.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	318	53.5%170 W · 148 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Alcaraz	73c	38.06$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.27	701	48.2%338 W · 363 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1619…ca7bbacked Bublik	29c	35.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4168…a631backed Alcaraz	70c	35.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.52	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x298e…8a75backed Alcaraz	70c	35.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.52	44	63.6%28 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Alcaraz	69c	31.66$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	1,018	46.8%476 W · 542 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4a…d477backed Alcaraz	71c	27.53$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.87	59	71.2%42 W · 17 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Alcaraz	52c	22.92$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	139	58.3%81 W · 58 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Alcaraz	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	1,001	45.4%454 W · 547 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Alcaraz	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	935	57.3%536 W · 399 L	-12.4wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e27…d603backed Alcaraz	69c	19.63$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.08	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Alcaraz	77c	19.21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.42	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+29%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)this page
Alcaraz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Alcaraz vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
Alcaraz vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander BublikCarlos Alcaraz won
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs BublikAlcaraz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event