Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3be3a6ce6e6e46f84da01bd7f5e7049a808d86302d02cf77e86234e8fd9455da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LiXO eSportsof LiXO eSports, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,968 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed LiXO eSports | 66c | 4,769$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.33 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked LiXO eSports | 61c | 3,858$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.8 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed LiXO eSports | 25c | 2,762$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.7 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked LiXO eSports | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed LiXO eSports | 41c | 631.76$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.6 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed VP.Prodigy | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked VP.Prodigy | 63c | 367.84$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.89 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 326.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 283.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 254.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked VP.Prodigy | 74c | 243.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…ff9ebacked VP.Prodigy | 41c | 234.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 212.29$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed LiXO eSports | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed LiXO eSports | 39c | 181.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 181.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked VP.Prodigy | 41c | 176.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked LiXO eSports | 22c | 159.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 72c | 156.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed LiXO eSports | 34c | 107.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked LiXO eSports | 59c | 98.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed VP.Prodigy | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…1bffbacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked LiXO eSports | 58c | 78.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed VP.Prodigy | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed LiXO eSports | 45c | 73.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed LiXO eSports | 18c | 65.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked VP.Prodigy | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 47.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…6181backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 45.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8e…cfbcbacked LiXO eSports | 27c | 42.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…3a0dbacked VP.Prodigy | 39c | 28.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked VP.Prodigy | 70c | 28.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…14e9backed VP.Prodigy | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2e25backed LiXO eSports | 42c | 24.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.