TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
VP.Prodigyof LiXO eSports, VP.Prodigy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,223 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb64…bfdcbacked LiXO eSports40c7,500$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.1223653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed VP.Prodigy64c7,207$4,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.2214840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed VP.Prodigy59c4,741$2,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.2322647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed LiXO eSports35c3,917$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.342755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked VP.Prodigy60c3,713$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4852259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked LiXO eSports41c3,100$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.9734544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked LiXO eSports39c2,687$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.611,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked LiXO eSports38c2,583$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked LiXO eSports53c2,558$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.269650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked LiXO eSports15c1,852$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.782958.6%17 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed VP.Prodigy50c1,800$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.9151751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked VP.Prodigy60c1,490$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.13977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed VP.Prodigy63c1,372$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.0312156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed VP.Prodigy66c1,329$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.632055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked LiXO eSports40c1,247$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed LiXO eSports41c1,226$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked VP.Prodigy60c1,075$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4305158.8%30 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked VP.Prodigy59c983.2$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.9611960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked VP.Prodigy70c759.76$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8886949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy66c734.95$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.141,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed VP.Prodigy60c663.33$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.332373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy56c628.7$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.961,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc6e…d043backed VP.Prodigy76c529.6$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.61560%9 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b17…cb13backed LiXO eSports45c505.9$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.531145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed LiXO eSports40c500.69$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.792,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked LiXO eSports10c499.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7370236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed LiXO eSports15c436.2$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.754932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked VP.Prodigy60c416$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.47565.3%49 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked VP.Prodigy60c413.88$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+118.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed LiXO eSports27c408.94$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.868040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed VP.Prodigy60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a45…172abacked LiXO eSports36c380.47$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed LiXO eSports43c350.31$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6331835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a3…0a1abacked VP.Prodigy79c322.19$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.273100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked LiXO eSports5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530543%131 W · 174 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked LiXO eSports31c282.36$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.581,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed LiXO eSports14c269.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1912454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccac…8a2abacked VP.Prodigy60c261.67$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked VP.Prodigy62c257.87$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6770052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed LiXO eSports14c254.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4428544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed LiXO eSports40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed LiXO eSports41c249.38$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7957455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de6…e187backed LiXO eSports28c234.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed LiXO eSports41c225.9$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6241050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f9…a6b2backed LiXO eSports15c217.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed LiXO eSports39c213.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.13447.1%16 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed LiXO eSports41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8220838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed VP.Prodigy61c191.41$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked VP.Prodigy61c172.69$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8373554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed LiXO eSports38c165.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.035226.9%14 W · 38 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed VP.Prodigy60c162.37$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.422945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x240a…63c1backed LiXO eSports41c160.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf82c…0f6fbacked VP.Prodigy60c158.6$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.441050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked VP.Prodigy63c158.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4536654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c3…2149backed VP.Prodigy60c158.33$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.331952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed LiXO eSports42c154.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.257451.4%38 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed LiXO eSports37c150.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.222456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed LiXO eSports38c146.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5344645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked VP.Prodigy62c140.06$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7291356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed VP.Prodigy71c135.75$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7318248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed LiXO eSports43c130.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0515033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a4…d314backed LiXO eSports40c126$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e8e…cfbcbacked LiXO eSports30c125.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd5…11bbbacked LiXO eSports40c123.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed LiXO eSports41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505334%18 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked VP.Prodigy60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea49…434fbacked LiXO eSports27c119.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.357157.7%41 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed VP.Prodigy65c114.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.136054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked LiXO eSports35c111.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9656243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked VP.Prodigy60c108.1$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.222878.6%22 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed LiXO eSports42c105.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4454753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed LiXO eSports39c99.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5115545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed VP.Prodigy62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7714251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed LiXO eSports18c96.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.75318.9%10 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed LiXO eSports40c93.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5250247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked VP.Prodigy43c92.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6624137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy56c84.38$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.032,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c3a…5c97backed VP.Prodigy71c80$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.21369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed LiXO eSports26c78.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7155147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed LiXO eSports26c77.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked LiXO eSports40c75.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf320…bd1cbacked LiXO eSports24c73.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked LiXO eSports39c72.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.422958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed VP.Prodigy62c71.35$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.161,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb567…4d4abacked LiXO eSports24c70.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb99…e585backed VP.Prodigy74c67.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.473100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef1…352ebacked VP.Prodigy60c63.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.281070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked VP.Prodigy79c63.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2235461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed LiXO eSports30c63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.711540%6 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+108.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8353…01a8backed LiXO eSports40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed LiXO eSports40c61.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7612720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x76a3…2aa6backed LiXO eSports41c60.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64b…9cf1backed LiXO eSports42c60.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ce2…4b11backed LiXO eSports18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+23.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked LiXO eSports41c58.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.29543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbec4…5fe3backed VP.Prodigy60c55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed LiXO eSports46c53.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6678516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x74e3…59cdbacked VP.Prodigy48c52.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.357100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4796…79fcbacked LiXO eSports22c51.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked LiXO eSports41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5540745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.