Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bedcb304beb9fe7db42972d1ffbbe0038b86a773f3e20edf4ce4d52db635eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed Yes | 1c | 7,388$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 505.26$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 179.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 61c | 162.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 61c | 162.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 61c | 154.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 145.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 52c | 127.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 44c | 111.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 100.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 86.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 82.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 70.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 24c | 62.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes | 64c | 61.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 61.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 61.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 56c | 42.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 70c | 35.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 34.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 33.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 38c | 31.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 28.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 63c | 26.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 63c | 26.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 58c | 24.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…4e16backed No | 67c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.