Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6eefa946952cb9cff43c7b690a604d6303cd8cb3183624ae3ef769e3a66e17b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6397…7b86backed Yes | 2c | 710$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 233.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 6c | 224.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 57c | 201.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 196.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 171.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 152.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 148.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 137$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 120.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 116.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 106.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 70c | 105.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 103.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 93.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 68c | 80.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 79.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 77.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 72c | 73.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 64.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 39c | 62.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes | 44c | 56.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 46c | 54.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 41c | 53.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 26c | 49.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 48.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…ad15backed Yes | 47c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 40c | 45.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 47c | 45.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 50c | 42.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 62c | 38.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 43c | 35.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 29.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 59c | 29.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 42c | 27.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…d20cbacked Yes | 58c | 27.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 63c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.