Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bff784eee57760988f309457928e704bf8bc400f3d146aff8ea721742178fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ccd…898fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,592$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 1,505$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 11c | 650$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…c44bbacked Yes | 42c | 581.3$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 12c | 497.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 477.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…42a7backed Yes | 6c | 456.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 401.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 400.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…4c9bbacked Yes | 6c | 392.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 10c | 389.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 10c | 375.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 13c | 356.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 10c | 354.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 344.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 12c | 299.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…9b2bbacked Yes | 21c | 291.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 4c | 281.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 260.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 5c | 259.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 258.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 16c | 250.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 16c | 233.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 10c | 231.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…2229backed Yes | 5c | 222.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…5e73backed Yes | 9c | 219.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 7c | 214.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed Yes | 8c | 194.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 8c | 180.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 14c | 164.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 7c | 154.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 15c | 138.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…25a0backed Yes | 12c | 127.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 121.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…e66abacked Yes | 16c | 104.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 90.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…8920backed Yes | 14c | 85.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 15c | 78.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 24c | 73.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed Yes | 14c | 70.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 16c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 66c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.