Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa109591499af5af6e957f24720f0f979d15b38eb703aa49ce47dbb33849c7318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,807 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ba5…2999backed Yes | 0c | 13,120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 17c | 1,404$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.81 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 15c | 1,100$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 800.42$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.04 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 416.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 412.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 383.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 372.06$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 330.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 313.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 293.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 78c | 274.29$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 265.03$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 38c | 260.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 24c | 256.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 77c | 230.13$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 24c | 227.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 22c | 218.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 17c | 214.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 20c | 214.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 78c | 206.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 206.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 23c | 204.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 29c | 201.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 20c | 179.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 20c | 170.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 19c | 155.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 24c | 150.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed No | 77c | 146.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…fb5abacked Yes | 25c | 140.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +237%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 137.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 127.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f6…c8c9backed Yes | 17c | 112.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 25c | 107.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…44eabacked Yes | 26c | 106.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 105.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 104.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…c01bbacked Yes | 16c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…22f3backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 93.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…2229backed Yes | 16c | 81.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 27c | 78.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 75c | 69.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…ccf7backed Yes | 24c | 68.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 21c | 62.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 60.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 20c | 59.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…3821backed Yes | 23c | 52.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 77c | 51.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 47.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 80c | 47.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 46.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 33.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…2a8fbacked No | 78c | 29.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73fe…071ebacked No | 70c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 80c | 28.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…5635backed Yes | 36c | 28.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 25.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…fb6cbacked No | 74c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d4…3d72backed No | 76c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 79c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 78c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a3…7207backed No | 77c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 75c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.