Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8b02f5d78b93e303e7ba3fe1cb11e6d6b7919358395e820e7bea0d433a6d8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,220 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9818…fbdebacked Yes | 35c | 3,060$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 1,942$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9203…513bbacked No | 65c | 1,550$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077d…5208backed No | 65c | 1,510$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 34c | 1,400$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.81 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 61c | 852.57$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.82 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 70c | 629.67$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…c44bbacked Yes | 60c | 499.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 498.92$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.49 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 26c | 485.32$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 39c | 430.47$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 44c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 351.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 39c | 346.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.43 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 74c | 344.98$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 61c | 339.6$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 22c | 331.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 290$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…1bfdbacked Yes | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 75c | 267.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 262.22$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 30c | 250.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 32c | 239.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 35c | 239.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 34c | 201.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 30c | 200.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 32c | 167.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 161.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 24c | 154.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…4c9bbacked Yes | 18c | 151.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…065bbacked Yes | 36c | 146$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 36c | 140.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 31c | 134.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 39c | 128.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 33c | 120.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 25c | 112.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…5e73backed Yes | 37c | 108.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 108.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…7e6ebacked Yes | 19c | 107.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 60c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 105.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 29c | 104.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 103.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked Yes | 29c | 102.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…42a7backed Yes | 13c | 96.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 57c | 95.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed No | 73c | 84.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 46c | 83.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 55c | 81.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 45c | 80.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 27c | 73.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 66c | 73.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 71.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…77b0backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 70.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 28c | 69.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…32c7backed No | 65c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 66.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…bb61backed Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 25c | 63.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…9d95backed Yes | 21c | 62.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 44c | 59.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 61c | 58.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 58.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 55.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 29c | 52.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed No | 66c | 51.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 49.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 65c | 47.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 46.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…b80bbacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 34c | 43.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…c958backed Yes | 23c | 42.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 36c | 41.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…5005backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 28c | 39.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…c751backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.