Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d76e4153ba2f88844ec93bad0d8e018e4fc973d0d6a8f94796292baf5101406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,642 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 17c | 6,200$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.54 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 45c | 2,054$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.74 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…43a2backed No | 1c | 1,893$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 1,027$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.85 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 847.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 65c | 751.2$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.85 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 57c | 687.52$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.96 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 659.19$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.68 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 594.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 54c | 557.36$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.89 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 537.08$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.29 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 11c | 483.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 26c | 420.76$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 412.88$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.97 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 398.45$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.46 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 380.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 47c | 317.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.62 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 309.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.32 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 69c | 288.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 245.77$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.37 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 244.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.21 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 44c | 227.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 10c | 222.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 30c | 215.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked No | 75c | 213.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 67c | 205.69$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 35c | 200.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 35c | 196.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 63c | 195.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 34c | 192.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 45c | 183.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 177.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed No | 64c | 176.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 69c | 171.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 35c | 169.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 167.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 155.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…2e67backed Yes | 36c | 145$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 134$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 35c | 132.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 38c | 130.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 36c | 121.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 114.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 112.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 17c | 112.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 107.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 59c | 103.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 38c | 100.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…5e73backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 36c | 97.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…e88cbacked No | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 94.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 26c | 93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 88.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 26c | 85.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 37c | 84.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 31c | 80.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 80c | 74.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…42a7backed No | 17c | 74.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 41c | 73.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…bb61backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 59c | 69.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 43c | 69.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 31c | 67.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked Yes | 53c | 67.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 42c | 66.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 27c | 63.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 63c | 63.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 63.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed No | 65c | 61.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 44c | 59.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 46c | 58.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0dcabacked No | 73c | 54.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 37c | 53.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b1…af56backed No | 66c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 49.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 46.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 30c | 45.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.