Olympics · resolved market
Will Marileidy Paulino (DOM) win gold in 400m W?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0425a6019a6c73fdf23894d3d7cec6041224c00380ac18bec3823710affe04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked No | 30c | 1,820$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…1cf9backed No | 45c | 1,092$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 70c | 337.52$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0786backed Yes | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff6…0dcbbacked Yes | 76c | 315.12$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 24c | 257.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…be3ebacked No | 20c | 230.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…f46bbacked No | 9c | 220.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 50c | 142.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 72c | 115.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked No | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 28c | 94.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 74c | 71.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad66…efa6backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…41e1backed Yes | 80c | 57.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Yes | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a6…cceebacked Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marileidy Paulino (DOM) win gold in 400m W? this page
- Will Natalia Kaczmarek (POL) win gold in 400m W?No won
- Will Nickisha Pryce (JAM) win gold in 400m W?No won
- Will Rhasidat Adeleke (IRL) win gold in 400m W?No won
- Will Salwa Eid Naser (BRN) win gold in 400m W?No won
- Will another athelete win gold in Women’s 400m W?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.